Americans More Likely to Increase than Decrease Their Support if Candidate Favors Ceasefire 

The crisis in Gaza, which as of this writing has claimed the lives of around 1,200 Israeli and more than 30,000 Palestinian civilians, has captured the attention of the world. Since October 7, several surveys have captured American public opinion on the situation. These studies examined the views of the old and young, Democrats and Republicans, men and women, college-educated and non-college-educated. The missing voice has been that of religious groups, particularly Muslim and Jewish Americans, who are often perceived as on opposing sides of this crisis.  

This survey aimed to assess the views of these two key American religious groups, as well as Catholic, Protestant, including white Evangelicals, and those not affiliated with a religious group, on a number of contentious topics. This is the second in a series of brief analysis pieces, this one focused on American religious and non-religious groups’ support for candidates who support a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, President Joe Biden’s handling of the crisis, and the proposed aid package to both the Israeli military and the Palestinian people.

Select findings from the poll:

Favoring a ceasefire helps candidates with voters

Muslims are eight times more likely to say a candidate's support for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza increases (64%) versus decreases (8%) their support for the candidate. As key constituents in battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, this is important to note for the 2024 elections. Moreover, half of Democrats in the general public (50%) say favoring a ceasefire increases their support for a candidate, versus 6% who say it decreases support. This means Democrats in general are more than eight times more likely to say a candidate’s support for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza increases versus decreases their support for that person. 

The plurality of most American religious groups view military aid to Israel as ‘too much’

Muslims and Jews are the exceptions, with the majority of Muslims (61%) seeing the aid package as ‘too much’ military funding, and the plurality of Jews (39%) viewing it as just the right amount of military funding. Half (50%) of young Jews (18-29), however, see aid to Israel as too much, while 5% see it as too little. Young Jews are more than twice as likely as their elders (23% of 30-49 year olds and 18% of 50+) to view military aid to Israel as excessive. Similarly, the majority of young people in the general public (53%) say military aid to Israel is too much. More than seven in ten (71%) young Muslims rate military aid to Israel as excessive.

Americans are split on humanitarian aid to Palestinians

A near majority of white Evangelicals (50%) say the proposed $100 million in humanitarian assistance for the Palestinian people is ‘too much’. Muslims, on the other hand, are more likely than all other groups surveyed to rate the proposed aid package as ‘too little’ (40% versus 10%-25%). Catholics (39%), Muslims (33%), and the non-affiliated (26%) are more likely than Protestants (20%) and white Evangelicals (20%) to say proposed humanitarian aid to Palestinians is ‘just right’. Jews are more likely than white Evangelicals to also hold this view (31% versus 20%).

US involvement in the conflict through sustained and long-term military and diplomatic aid to Israel means that the course this crisis takes is directly relevant to the American public, especially ahead of the 2024 general election.

ISPU will continue to inform the dialogue on this important issue with a series of analysis pieces throughout early 2024. 

Dr. Selod lends perspective to insights from the poll

USA Today recently published an op-ed written by Dr. Saher Selod, ISPU Director of Research, about findings from the first analysis: The majority of Muslim and Jewish Democrats favor a ceasefire in Gaza. The article offers deeper insight into how different religious groups view a ceasefire, and how their support for a ceasefire may impact the 2024 presidential election. "At this moment, policymakers and the news media need to pay attention to how religious groups view a cease-fire," Dr. Selod says in the op-ed. 

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